WATERLOO REGION — A super El Nino brewing in the Pacific Ocean may blunt chances of another brutal winter in southern Ontario.

"I certainly think people who liked winter over the last two years, may be left out in the cold this year," said David Phillips, climatologist at Environment Canada.

Since 1950, there have been seven super El Nino events, where equatorial waters warmed more than 1 C above normal. Six times, warmer-than-normal winters unfolded in the Great Lakes area, Phillips said. One winter was colder than normal.

"In the Kitchener area, clearly the dice are loaded for a warmer winter: more pacific air than arctic air," he said.

Temperatures have been, on average, 1 C above normal since May in the Kitchener area. Phillips expects warmth will continue through fall — and maybe linger into spring on the back of the weakening El Nino.

There's a similar prediction for a warm autumn start from The Weather Network.

Central and eastern Canada are in for a warmer-than-normal beginning to fall, which officially starts before dawn Wednesday.

Temperatures may reach mid-summer levels before falling suddenly in October. Around the Great Lakes, the low temperatures mean a, "higher than typical threat for a significant autumn snowfall" paired with "a couple rounds of early-season lake-effect snow," the forecast says.

The weather company also suggests a mild start to winter with and a cold finish in Central Canada.

Temperatures swings are normal through fall, as is a bit snow, as summer gives way to autumn, Phillips said. He's not convinced warm lake waters will automatically bring unusual blasts of lake effect snow through fall and winter this year.

The atmosphere looks primed for a spectacular start to autumn in the Kitchener area, with clear skies and mild temperatures, he said.

"If we're right, it will be an October worth cheering," Phillips said.

Summer weather has trees ready to offer a brilliant show when leaves start changing colour in early October, he said.

"It will be just a magical, Technicolor look for the province."

There's little rain — or even much cloud — in the forecast into October. That brings warm daytime temperatures, but increases the risk of an early, hard frost, Phillips said.

Clear skies mean clear, cool nights, because there's no cloud to keep warmth at ground level.

Usually, the first frost happens around Oct. 2 in the Kitchener area.