The odds aren't looking good,' says local weather expert

CBC News Posted: Dec 14, 2015 11:07 AM ET Last Updated: Dec 14, 2015 11:07 AM ET

One weather expert says this December has been six degrees above average so far. (Andrea Bellemare/CBC)

Related Stories

• Record-high temps have people gardening in southern Ontario
• White Christmas in Windsor highly unlikely this year
• Waterloo Region Christmas hampers help 11,000 people in need

Will it be a white Christmas in the Waterloo Region this year? One local weather expert says it doesn't appear likely. 

Frank Seglenieks is the University of Waterloo's weather centre co-ordinator. He told CBC Radio's The Morning Edition host Craig Norris that with the arrival of St. Nick just 11 days away and temperatures still above seasonal, it doesn't look like the region will see any of the white stuff on December 25. 

'We haven't had a colder than average day in December.'-Frank Seglenieks, UW weather centre co-ordinator

"The odds aren't looking good," he said. "I think it might be tough."

Seglenieks says the fog people have been seeing over the past few weeks is a symptom of the warm Pacific air we are receiving thanks to this year's strong El Nino. 

"It's been about six degrees above average so far for this first half of the month," he said. "We haven't had a colder than average day in December."

The El Nino, on top of a very strong Arctic Oscillation that is keeping the cold air circling around the North Pole with high winds, is bringing about warmer conditions to southern Ontario with the official start of winter just a week away. 

"September was very warm, October was a bit more average, November was warm, we're seeing a warm December," Seglenieks explained. "It's really looking like this may be the warmest fall ... that we've seen in the region."

Winter not cancelled yet

Even with a cold front coming in this week, the weather co-ordinator says there's no reason to bust out the long johns just yet. 

"It might get us down to average temperatures in a couple days. It's not even a slam dunk that it's actually going to get there, so it's just a different kind of system that you have with this kind of El Nino pattern," he said.

But even if we experience temperatures below average during the next few months, they'll still likely be below freezing and any precipitation could sprinkle snowflakes across the Waterloo Region.

"Winter hasn't been cancelled yet," he noted.

Plus, Seglenieks says the lakes are still warm and lake effect snow is a possibility when a cold front sweeps through the area. Regardless, the weather expert admits it's been an unusually warm fall thus far. 

"We had three days over 10 degrees in December and that's pretty rare, the last time it happened was '98, which, of course, was the second year of the last major El Nino."

That's significant because we are currently only in the first year of a major El Nino pattern, which Seglenieks says could spark an even warmer winter next year.